Webinar: EURO 2024: Tournament Outcome Probabilities

Webinar Details

Date:  2024-06-12

Time:  8 a.m. EDT | 2 p.m. CEST

“Lift the lid” on the black-box of Monte Carlo simulation – to see that there is not a lot there! Yet it is a very robust (hard to make mistakes) and powerful technique – and the only one for correctly calculating outcome probabilities for “complicated”, real-world, uncertain situations such as football tournaments. Using the 2024 EUROs, the webinar will demonstrate:

  • The subjective nature of probability assignments
  • The relationship between uncertainty, variability, and data (busting the myth that you need “data” to do useful MC Sim!)
  • What it means for a probability to be correct/accurate/right
  • That very simple models of uncertain systems can produce accurate probabilities of their outcomes.

So even if you are not interested in football, you’ll still get something out of this webinar! And if you are interested in football, this will be the “reveal” of Steve’s 2024 EUROs probabilities.



About the Presenter

Dr. Steve Begg, Emeritus Professor, University of Adelaide

Uncertainty (with its consequent risks and opportunities) has been a constant theme throughout Dr. Steve Begg’s 40-year career — the first half of which was spent in industrial research and application, focusing on uncertainty in geological and sub-surface engineering properties. The second half was in academia where his focus switched to teaching and research on the impact of uncertainty on economic evaluations and, ultimately, decision-making in a very general sense. Steve has a BSc in Geological Geophysics and a PhD in Earthquake Seismology – both from the University of Reading in the UK. He is a member of the Society of Decision Professionals.
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Thalia M. Mulvihill, Ph.D., works as a Professor of Higher Education and Social Foundations in the Department of Educational Leadership at Ball State University. Dr. Mulvihill is a historian and sociologist of higher education. She teaches several qualitative research methods and academic writing courses for doctoral students and has authored eight books as well as over 90 refereed publications, co-edits The Teacher Educator journal, and is the recipient of numerous teaching, research, and mentoring awards.
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Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.

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Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.

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