Webinar: Forecasting Petroleum Product Demand

Webinar Details

Date:  2024-03-21

Time:  12 p.m. EDT | 5 p.m. CET

Forecasts of energy demand are required as a critical input for resource planning including the optimization of energy systems. Uncertainties are introduced by the traditional approaches to demand forecasting such as assumed growth factors, the use of econometric models, or deterministic time series models. These uncertainties impact the recommended resource allocation strategy.

To overcome this limitation, this webinar demonstrates the use of @RISK software to make probabilistic time series forecasts of refined petroleum product (RPP) demand. The time series fit function within @RISK is used to model probabilistic demand forecasts for five refined products based on their historical demand.

The probabilistic time series forecasts enhance the resource allocation strategies in an integrated oil value chain.


About the Presenter

Kaase Gbakon Ph.D., Senior Forestry Economist at Ministry of Energy and Resources

Dr. Kaase Gbakon, currently completing a PhD in Petroleum Economics, Management, and Policy with a focus on Energy Systems Modeling, boasts an extensive background as a Senior Economist at the Ministry of Energy and Resources in Saskatchewan, Canada. With a wealth of experience, he held pivotal roles within the Nigerian National Oil Company including leading the Asset Evaluation and Economics group in Corporate Planning & Strategy, acting as the Lead Commercial in the ANOH Gas Processing Company (AGPC), and serving as a Senior Technical Assistant to the Chief Strategy Officer. His expertise as a lead project economist encompasses critical assignments such as gas negotiations, upstream and midstream asset acquisitions, and dispute resolutions. Dr. Gbakon has authored and presented numerous C-level reports and technical papers at both local and international conferences. A dedicated professional, he is affiliated with prestigious organizations such as the Society of Petroleum Engineers, International Association for Energy Economics, Nigerian Society of Engineers, and is a COREN registered Engineer. Furthermore, his Canadian affiliations include the Canadian Association for Business Economics (CABE) and the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Saskatchewan (APEGS).
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Thalia M. Mulvihill, Ph.D., works as a Professor of Higher Education and Social Foundations in the Department of Educational Leadership at Ball State University. Dr. Mulvihill is a historian and sociologist of higher education. She teaches several qualitative research methods and academic writing courses for doctoral students and has authored eight books as well as over 90 refereed publications, co-edits The Teacher Educator journal, and is the recipient of numerous teaching, research, and mentoring awards.
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Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.

Morbi at fringilla arcu et cursus.

Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.

Morbi at fringilla arcu et cursus.

Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.

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Vel viverra eros donec est tortor.

Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.

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