Webinar Details
Date: 2024-01-24
Time: 11 a.m. CET
A model of the uncertainties involved in the outcomes of matches in football tournaments (World Cups, Euros, and English Premier League seasons) was developed. Only two key uncertain parameters were needed: team “form” throughout the tournament; and match-specific deviation from tournament form (no explicit team vs team model was used). Probability distributions for these parameters were assigned based on team performance over the past 3 years. Overall tournament statistics from the simulations were consistent with those of past tournaments. Pre-competition probabilities of outcomes (how far a team would progress in knock-out tournaments; final position in league tournaments) were compared with observed outcome frequencies. An excellent match (calibration plot) was obtained at all probability levels. The results support growing evidence that simple probabilistic models can be very accurate.
About the Presenter
Steve Begg, Emeritus Professor, University of Adelaide
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Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.
Morbi at fringilla arcu. Nulla et cursus massa, vel viverra eros. Donec est tortor, iaculis lobortis fringilla eu, tempor sit amet nulla. Vestibulum vestibulum fermentum arcu, non vestibulum libero sagittis eget. Suspendisse porta lacus lorem, vel tincidunt justo fringilla eget.